Oil and natural gas continued to trade down on a weekly scale along with precious metals. These losses were recorded after the USD slightly recovered against leading currencies such as Euro and Yen and U.S equities traded up. On this week’s agenda: Minutes of FOMC meeting, Jackson Hole Symposium with Yellen and Draghi giving speeches, Philly Fed index, U.S CPI, China’s manufacturing PMI, U.S existing home sales, GB CPI, and U.S housing starts. So let’s review the economic colander for the week of August 18th to 22nd.
(All times GMT):
Monday, August 18th
15:00 – U.S NAHB Housing Market Index: this measurement estimates the diffusion index based on surveyed home builders; in the past report, the index rose to 53.
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%. The minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its latest rate decision;
Tuesday, August 19th
09:30 – GB CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI increased to an annual rate of 1.9% during June. The changes in Great Britain’s inflation could affect BOE’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S housing starts monthly update for July 2014; in the past report, housing starts slightly declined to 960K houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during June, building permits fell to 890K houses. If building permits continues to decline, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is slowing down (the recent U.S building permits update);
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the main shifts in the core consumer price index for July 2014. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during June, the CPI rose by 0.3%; the core CPI also inched up by 0.1%; this report could impact the USD and the FOMC’s monetary policy;
00:30 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to testify before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics, in Brisbane; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;
23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: Back in May 2014 the Japanese trade balance deficit slightly widened to 1,080 billion yen (roughly $10.58 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; its trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s developments in its demand for goods and services;
Wednesday, August 20th
09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the last MPC meeting, the Bank left its cash rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; the Bank is likely to keep its rate unchanged, but we might see some hints about the future steps of the BOE;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 15th;
19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: In the last meeting at the end of July, the FOMC decided to taper again its asset purchase program by $10 billion to a pace of $25 billion a month. But it remains unclear the next significant change in policy will occur – i.e. the next rate hike. The upcoming minutes might provide some information on this decision, the FOMC’s future monetary steps and especially the decision process about raising its interest rate;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will publish its flash manufacturing PMI survey for August. Last month’s report regarding July 2014, the Manufacturing PMI rose again to 52 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is scaling up. If in the upcoming report the PMI index rises again, it means China’s manufacturing sector is improving;
Thursday, August 21st
2 days event – Jackson Hole Symposium: In this Economic Symposium we are expected to see Chair of the FOMC and President of ECB each give a speech at this event. This is one of the major economic events of the year;
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last monthly update regarding July 2014, France’s PMI dropped to 47.8 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting. Germany’s PMI slightly rose to 52.9 – the industry still grows at a faster pace. These estimates show the developments in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may impact the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s report, retail sales in Great Britain inched up by 0.1%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 15th; in the recent report the jobless claims rose by 21K to reach 311K;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will show the changes in U.S. existing home sales for July 2014; in the recent report regarding June, the number of homes sold increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million houses; if this trend continues, it may positively affect the U.S dollar;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey projects the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the previous survey regarding June, the growth rate rallied from +17.8 in June to +23.9 in July. If the index further rises, it may positively impact not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of August 15th;
Friday, August 22nd
13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will show the changes in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for June; in the previous report, the core CPI edged down by 0.1%;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: This report may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly linked with commodities. In the last report regarding May 2014, manufacturing sales inched up by 0.1%;
15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Janet Yellen is expected to talk in at the Jackson Hole Symposium about the labor markets specifically Re-Evaluating Labor Market Dynamics;
18:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: ECB President will also give a speech regarding the labor markets.
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