The highly anticipated Greek elections will be held on Sunday and could set the pace for this week in the markets. In the U.S. several economic reports will be released including: first estimate of GDP for Q4, FOMC meeting statement, durable goods, new and pending home sales, consumer confidence and UoM consumer sentiment. Europe’s ECOFIN and Euro-group meetings will be held this week. Moreover, notable reports to consider including monetary developments, flash CPI, German business climate, GB GDP for Q4, and German retail sales. In Japan, the minutes of BOJ’s last meeting will be published. So let’s examine the main events and reports for the week of January 26th to January 30th:
(All times GMT):
Sunday, January 25th
Greek Elections: This election could be the one that will ultimately result in Greece exiting the EU – that is if the extreme left party Syriza, which is leading in the polls, wins this elections; a Grexit, while could shake up the financial markets and raise the speculations about the actually stability of the EU, isn’t likely to have major or sustainable long term adverse impact on the EU, as presented in this article; in any case, the results of this election will still be important to follow;
23:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting could offer some insight behind its recent meeting;
Monday, January 26th
09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index consists of the changes (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of January. In the December report, the business climate index rose again to 105.5 – the current expectations are that the index will increase again to 106.7;
All Day – Euro-group Meetings: These meetings are held in Brussels and include meetings among Euro-group President, Finance Ministers from euro area member states, the Commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, and the President of the European Central Bank; this time the potential ramifications related to the recent Greek elections could be one of the major talking points;
Tuesday, January 27th
09:30 – Flash Great Britain GDP Q4 2014: This report will present the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the fourth quarter of 2014; during the third quarter the GB economy expanded by 0.7% (Q-2-Q); current projections are at 0.6% gain for the last quarter of 2014;
All Day – ECOFIN Meetings: ECOFIN is the Euro zone’s broadest financial decision making body. The meetings among EU Finance Ministers will revolve around the recent economic developments in the Euro zone may include talks about the ongoing low inflation, debt problems and high unemployment;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding December will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of November 2014, new orders of manufactured durable goods slipped to $241.5 billion – a 0.9% drop compared to October; current estimates are at 0.6% gain for this upcoming report;
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the last update for December, the consumer confidence index bounced back to 92.6; this suggests consumer spending is growing faster. The current estimates are for a modest gain so the index will pick rise to 95.7;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to December 2014; in the previous report (opens pdf; for November), the sales of new homes declined to an annual rate of 438,000 – a 4.4% fall (month-over-month); current estimates are for a gain to an annual rate of 452,000;
Wednesday, January 28th
00:30 – Australia’s CPI: According to the last quarterly report, the CPI grew by 0.5%, Q-o-Q. The annual rate was 2.3%. The current expectations are for the quarterly report to a 0.3% quarterly gain;
09:00 – GfK German Consumer Climate: In the last monthly report, the index rose to 9. If the index keeps slowly rising, this could suggest the German economy is improving;
19:00 – FOMC Meeting: This will be the first meeting for the FOMC this year. Following the changes in the wording in the past meeting and the press conference, this time the meeting is likely to create less commotion in the markets. This meeting will take place between January 27th and 28th. This time, the FOMC won’t hold a press conference. Since in the previous meeting FOMC Chair Yellen promised there won’t be any big changes in the FOMC’s policy at least in the next couple of meetings, then it’s more likely that the FOMC won’t rock the boat this time. In any case, markets will try to look into the statement and see if any changes were made, and how many FOMC members voted against the decision; despite the recent news about the economic slowdown and falling oil prices, the markets still estimate a rate hike in mid-2015;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 23rd;
Thursday, January 29th
Tentative – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the previous CPI report for December 2014, the CPI remained flat again. This time the expectations are for the CPI to drop by 0.8%;
08:55 – Germany’s Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update presented that the unemployment fell by 27K;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of December 2014. In the last November report, the annual growth rate for M3 rose to 3.1%; M1 also grew to 6.9%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached -0.2%. This month’s estimates are that M3 will rise to 3.6%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 23rd; in the previous report the jobless claims slipped to 307K;
15:00 – U.S Pending Home Sales: This report presents the changes in pending home sales in the U.S during December; in the previous update for November, pending home sales index rose by 0.8% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the shifts of the U.S housing market;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 23rd;
Friday, January 30th
07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the latest report for December 2014, retail sales rose by 1%; this month’s estimates are for a gain of 0.4%;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This is a composite index based on 219 economic indicators; the current estimates are for this index to drop and reach 94.8;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for December, the annual CPI reached -0.2%. The core CPI rose to 0.8%. In either case, it’s well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. The current estimates are for the inflation to fall to 0.5% and the core CPI inch down to 0.6%;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s report presented that the rate of unemployment didn’t move from 11.5%. This figure suggests the labor market in the Euro Area isn’t progressing;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the changes in major industrial sectors for November 2014. In the last update regarding October 2014, the real gross domestic product rose by 0.3%; the current expectations are for the GDP to inch down by 0.1%;
13:30 – Third U.S GDP 4Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s fourth quarter 2014 real GDP growth. In the last estimate the GDP rose by 5%; this was above market expectations. The current estimates are that the GDP grew by 3.1% in the past quarter. If the US gross domestic product shows higher growth rate, this could positively impact not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the past update, the sentiment index rose to 93.6;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last estimate for its January’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.1 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing slower than in previous months. If the updated PMI index falls, this may imply China’s manufacturing conditions are slowing further down;
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