The FOMC, as usual, didn’t make any major changes to its policy and didn’t offer any big headlines. But this was interrupted by the markets that there won’t be a September rate hike. Also, the U.S. GDP for Q2 came out and showed a gain of 2.3% — slightly below market estimates. In any case, energy prices kept falling, while precious metals rallied. The USD remains nearly flat against major currencies. This week’s main reports include: Non-farm payroll report, U.S. core PCE, BOJ, RBA and BOE rate decisions, U.S. factory orders, Great Britain manufacturing production, China’s CPI, U.S. manufacturing PMI, China’s CPI, and German factory orders. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of August 3rd to 7th.
(All times GMT):
Monday, August 3rd
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in June, Great Britain’s manufacturing index slipped to 51.4 – market expectations are that in July the PMI edged up to 51.6;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to examine the changes in U.S. inflation. In the recent report, the PCE index rose by 0.9% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) edged up by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE to inch up again by 0.1% and PCE by 0.2%;
15:00 – U.S. Manufacturing PMI: This report will pertain to July 2015. Back in June, the index rose again to 53.5; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a faster rate than in previous month’s estimates; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets; analysts expect this index to edge up to 53.6;
Tuesday, August 4th
01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the last report, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.3%;
01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: In the previous update, the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services contracted to 2.75 billion Australian dollars; the monthly update will also present the changes in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last time, RBA kept its cash rate flat at 2%. It also expected that the RBA were to keep rates unchanged this time as well. But RBA could still surprise and cut the rate considering the uncertainty China’s economic outlook;
15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: This report shows the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in July; in the latest report regarding June factory orders fell by 1%; current projections are for a 1.8% bounce in July;
Wednesday, August 5th
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for July 2015 that will be published on Friday;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report, the deficit in the trade balance grew to $3.3 billion;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for June will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous American trade balance update for May, the goods and services deficit expanded to $41.9 billion; current projections are for the deficit to rise again to $42.6 billion;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to July 2015. In the last update for June, this index edged up to 56 — the non-manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster pace compared to the previous month; current estimates are for the PMI to rise to 56.4;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 31st;
Thursday, August 6th
02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding June 2015 the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 6%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) modestly rose by 7.3K people. This report may move the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);
08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the recent report, factory orders slipped by 0.2% during June; currently, the market expectations are for a modest gain of 0.4% July;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production for June; in the last report regarding May 2015 the index fell again by 0.6%; this time, the estimates are for 0.2% gain;
10:30 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation forecast for 2015and 2016;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: This event isn’t likely to make waves in the markets considering Bank of England isn’t expected to change its policy at this point;
12:45 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor is expected to hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 31st; in the previous report, jobless claims rose to 267K; the expectations are for this number to remain virtually unchanged at 269K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of July 31st;
Friday, August 7th
01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will publish its quarterly report referring to the Bank’s monetary policy;
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to change the bank’s asset purchase program;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update for June 2015, unemployment remained flat at 6.8%; the employment declined by 6.4K;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the last employment report regarding June 2015, the number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 223K – close to market expectations; the U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 5.3%. If the upcoming report presents a stronger than expected gain in employment (current projections are at 224K), this could boost the USD and pressure down bullion prices;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has contracted last month but is expected to expand in the next monthly report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;
02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI edged up to an annual rate of 1.4%; if the annual rate rises, it could signal the Chinese economy is progressing; the current expectations are for the CPI to inch up to 1.5%; in the meantime, the PPI remains negative at 4.8% — not a positive indicator for China’s economic progress;
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