The BOE didn’t change its monetary policy but still promised that stimulus is on the way in the coming meetings. This week’s main event will be the ECB rate decision. Even though the ECB isn’t likely to make any changes to policy, Mario Draghi is still likely to move markets especially considering the market anticipates him to refer to the Brexit vote and how it may impact ECB’s policy. Besides the ECB policy meeting other events and reports to consider are: U.S. housing starts, EU manufacturing PMI, GB CPI, U.S. existing home sales, U.S. Philly Fed index, GB Claimant Count Change and German ZEW economic sentiment. So let’s preview the main events for the week of July 18th to 22nd.
(All times GMT):
Monday, July 18th
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t change its cash rate at 1.75% in its recent meeting; this report may move the Aussie dollar and perhaps indicate what’s next for RBA’s policy;
Tuesday, July 19th
09:30 – GB CPI: Based on the last update, the CPI remained at an annual rate of 0.3% in May; in the upcoming report, the CPI is expected to edge up to 0.4%;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for June. Back in May, the ZEW indicator for Germany rose to 19.2 points; the current estimates are for a fall to 8.2;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: The U.S Census Bureau will release for June 2016 the U.S. building permits monthly report; in the last update, total permits picked up to 1,140 thousand houses (the recent U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a modest gain to 1,150 thousand houses;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: In the last report, U.S. housing starts decreased to 1,160 thousand houses; in the next report, this figure is expected to edge up to 1,170 thousand houses;
Wednesday, July 20th
09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report shows the developments in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the latest report, this index remained flat at 2%; in the next report, the index is expected to rise to 2.3%;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the recent monthly report, the number of unemployed in GB declined by 0.4K; the rate of unemployment inched down to 5% and is expected to maintain this level this time as well;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 15th;
Thursday, July 21st
09:30 – GB Retail Sales: In the upcoming report the market expects sales to have fallen by 0.4% compared to the previous month;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: This will be one of the main events of for week, even though the ECB isn’t expected to introduce any new policy measures. But the ECB could refer to recent Brexit and the possible ramifications this event could have on the EU economy and ECB’s policy;
13:30 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey, the growth rate rose from -1.8 in May to 4.7 in June; in the next report, the index is expected to rise to 5.1 (the recent Philly Fed review);
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 15th; in the last report, jobless claims didn’t move from 254K; in the next report, estimates are for 271K jobless claims;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will refer to the U.S. existing home sales for June 2016; in May, the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.53 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to slightly decrease to 5.48 million houses;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of July 15th;
Friday, July 22nd
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous report, the France’s PMI declined to 47.9 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting at a faster pace as of June. Conversely, Germany’s PMI picked up again to 54.4 – the industry is expanding at a faster rate; currently, the market estimates Germany’s PMI to slip to 53.6; UK’s preliminary PMI is also expected to be released this day;
13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI rose by 0.3%, M-o-M;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the previous report regarding May, sales increased by 1.3%;
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