As the whole debacle around the Greek debt crisis dissipates and takes the backburner for the near term, other economic developments could retake the center stage including the changes in the monetary policy of the FOMC and ECB. In the U.S. the NFP report will be released. Besides this report, we also have on the agenda, Yellen’s speech, manufacturing PMI, PCE, factory orders, and trade balance monthly report. In Europe, we have rate decisions of BOE and ECB that are likely to result in no big change in policy of either central bank. The main economic reports include EU flash CPI, GB manufacturing PMI, German factory orders, GB’s manufacturing PMI and EU and Germany retail sales. In China, manufacturing PMI will be published. Finally, in the country down under the RBA rate decision, trade balance report and GDP for Q4 will take the center stage. So let’s examine the agenda for the week of March 2nd to 6th:
(All times GMT):
Monday, March 2nd
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s recent estimate for its February’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.7 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are still contacting. Current estimates are at 50.1 — so China’s manufacturing conditions are still growing slow;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During January, Great Britain’s manufacturing index bounced back to 53 – market expectations are that in February the PMI edged up to 53.5;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the recent estimate for January, the annual CPI reached -0.6%. The core CPI increased to 0.6%. This is well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. The current estimates are for the inflation to fall to 0.5% and the core CPI inch up to -0.5%;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update presented that the rate of unemployment inched down to 11.4%. This figure suggests the labor market in the Euro Area isn’t progressing;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is another index the FOMC follows to assess of inflation. In the recent report, the PCE index slipped by 0.3% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) remained unchanged. The expectations are for the PCE to remain flat and 0.1% gain in core PCE for the upcoming report;
15:00 – US Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to February 2015. Back in January, the index declined to 53.5; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a slower pace; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets; analysts expect this index to decline to 53.4;
Tuesday, March 3rd
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA cut down its cash rate by 25 bp to 2.25% — an historic low. Current estimates are for another 25 bp cut;
07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the latest report for January 2015, retail sales rose by 0.2%; this month’s estimates are for a gain of 0.5%;
10:00 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor is due testify on currency probe before the Treasury Select Committee, in London;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the shifts in major industrial sectors for December 2014. In the last update regarding November 2014, the real gross domestic product contracted by 0.2%; the current expectations are for the GDP to inch up by 0.1%;
00:30 – Australian GDP Fourth Quarter of 2014: This quarterly report will pertain to the Australia’s GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2014. In the third quarter of 2014, the GDP grew by 0.3% (seasonally adjusted). Currently, the estimates are for a 0.7% rise in the fourth quarter (see here last update);
01:15 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Janet Yellen is expected to talk about bank regulation and supervision at the Citizens Budget Commission’s Annual Awards Dinner, in New York;
Wednesday, March 4th
09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the last report, this index rose to 57.2; this index may impact the direction of the British Pound;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to January 2015. In the previous report, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.3%;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for February 2015 that will be published on Friday;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will announce of any changes to its overnight rate – the rate is currently at 0.75%. The BOC isn’t expected to make any changes to its policy;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to February 2015. In the last update, this index rose to 56.7 — the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a faster rate compared to the last month; current estimates are for the PMI to slip to 56.5;
15:30 – US Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 27th
01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the last report, the volume of retail trade inched up by 0.2%;
01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: As of the previous update, the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services contracted to 0.44 billion dollars; the report will also show the shifts in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);
Thursday, March 5th
06:00 – German Factory Orders: In the last report, factory orders rose by 4.2% during January;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will release its basic rate for March 2015; the MPC will also announce of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; the current expectations are for no changes to the rate at this point in time; BOE’s interest rate remained at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion, as of last month;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: Following the whole situation around the Greek debt crisis, which for the time being is placed on the backburner, the ECB could focus on its monetary policy. This time, however, the ECB isn’t expected to come out with any big announcements. Nonetheless, in Europe this is still one of the main events of the week;
13:30 – US Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 26th; in the last report, the jobless claims rose to 313K;
15:00 – US Factory Orders: This report shows the shifts in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in February; in the latest report regarding January factory orders fell again by 3.4%; current projections are for a 0.1% gain for last month;
15:00 – Canada Ivy PMI: This index is based on surveyed purchasing managers; last time, the PMI dropped to 45.4;
15:30 – EIA US Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of February 27th;
Friday, March 6th
08:00 – SNB’s Foreign Currency Reserves: This report provides an update on the total value of foreign currency reserves held by the SNB;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report, the trade balance remained unchanged at a $0.6 billion deficit;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the last employment report referring to January 2014, the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 257K – higher than market expectations; the U.S unemployment rate inched up to 5.7%. If the upcoming report shows another strong gain (current projections are at 241K), this could further strengthen the USD and bring back down the prices of gold and silver;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for January will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the previous American trade balance update regarding December the goods and services deficit expanded to $46.6 billion; current projections are for the deficit to decline to $41.6 billion;
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