The U.S. dollar huge sell-offs, precious metals recovered and crude oil resumed its downward trend. The high volatility is likely to continue this week as the last FOMC meeting will unfold. This time, the FOMC meeting will include an update of economic outlook and press conference. Besides this event, other reports and events include: U.S. CPI, Japan’s elections, Canada and GB’s CPI, U.S. industrial production, Canada’s retail sales, EU and China’s manufacturing PMI, MPC rate decision, U.S. housing starts, RBA minutes of last meeting, and German economic sentiment. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of December 15th to 19th.
(All times GMT):
Sunday, December 14th
All day – Japan’s elections: This event is likely to go with little surprises as the current opinion polls ;
Monday, December 15th
01:30 – Australia’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook: This is an annual report that provides an update to Australia’s economic outlook;
14:15 –U.S. Capacity Utilization Rate: This report shows the month to month changes in the percentage of available resources being utilized by manufacturers, mines, and utilities; last month the rate reached 78.9%; this rate is expected to slightly rise in the upcoming report;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the shifts in the U.S industrial production during November; as of October, industrial production inched down by 0.1%;
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t make any changes to its interest rate and left it at 2.5%; the minutes will provide some additional input regarding the last rate decision;
Tuesday, December 16th
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will release its flash manufacturing PMI survey for December. Last month’s report regarding November 2014, the Manufacturing PMI slipped again to 50 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors isn’t expanding nor contracting. The current expectations are for another modest fall in this index to 49.8. If the PMI index falls again, it will suggest China’s manufacturing sector is contracting – this doesn’t vote well for the recent PBOC’s decision to lower rates;
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last monthly update regarding November 2014, France’s PMI edged up to 47.6 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting at slower pace. Germany’s PMI fell to 50 – the industry is not growing. For this month, the estimates are for the German PMI to rally to 50.4. These estimates show the developments in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may impact the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
09:00 –BOE Gov Carney Speaks: The Governor is expected to hold a press conference about the Financial Stability Report, in London;
09:30 – GB CPI: According to the last report, the CPI inched up to an annual rate of 1.3% during October. The current projections are for that it will edge down again to 1.2% for November. The changes in Great Britain’s inflation could impact BOE’s monetary policy;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The forthcoming report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for November. During October, the ZEW indicator for Germany rose to 11.5 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to rise, this could suggest a recovery in Germany’s economic sentiment;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent report regarding October 2014, manufacturing sales increased by 2.1%;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S housing starts monthly update for November 2014; in the last report, housing starts slipped to 1,010K houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during October, building permits slightly increased to 1,080K houses. If building permits keep increasing, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is slowing recovering (the recent U.S building permits update);
Wednesday, November 17th
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the previous month, the number of unemployed in GB dropped again by 20.4K; the rate of unemployment remained flat at 6%;
09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the previous MPC meeting, the Bank left its cash rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion. In the last two votes, there were two dissenters to raise rates. This time the expectations remain at two dissenters – any change in this count could rattle the Pound;
10:00 – EU CPI (final): According to the last report, the CPI edged up to an annual rate of 0.4% as of November. The developments in EU’s inflation could influence ECB members in changing the bank’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the main changes in the core consumer price index for November 2014. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during October, the CPI remained flat the core CPI rallied by 0.2%; this report could impact the USD and change the FOMC’s monetary policy;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 14th;
19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: This highly anticipated FOMC meeting will take place between December 16th and 17th. This time, the FOMC will publish an update to its economic outlook and FOMC Chair Yellen will hold a press conference for the last meeting of the year. This time all eyes will be towards whether the FOMC will omit the term “considerable time” from the statement. FOMC members voiced in the past their concern that people may think that by doing so, the FOMC’s policy is changing and a rate hike will be right around the corner. But since the FOMC does plan to raise rates in the coming months, this thought process isn’t far off from the FOMC’s actual policy. The FOMC will also refer to the recent higher than expected gain in the NF payroll, the ongoing low inflation, the growth in the U.S. economy and the slowdown in other leading economies including Europe and Japan. These factors could also influence FOMC members to evaluate their next move. For now, the current expectations are for the FOMC to start raising rates by the end of the first or second quarter of next year. Yellen’s press conference will also be an important event and she may refer to the FOMC’s policy and what’s up ahead — get ready to see a rise in market volatility;
Thursday, November 18th
09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index consists of the shifts (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of December. In the November report, the business climate index bounced back to 104.7 – the current expectations are that the index will rise again to 105.6;
09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s update, retail sales in Great Britain rose by 0.8%;
All Day – EU Economic Summit: This two day Summit will include the financial ministers of the EU and ECB members;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 14th; in the last report the jobless claims slipped to 294K;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimated the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding November, the growth rate spiked from +20.7 in October to +40.8 in November. If the index changes course and falls, it may adversely impact not only U.S. Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities (the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of December 14th;
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. Considering the BOJ made waves with its recent decision, it’s likely to keep the policy unchanged in the next meeting;
Friday, November 19th
09:00 – GfK German Consumer Climate: In the last monthly report, the index rose to 8.7. If the index continues to slowly rising, this could suggest the German economy is improving;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the last report regarding September 2014, manufacturing sales remained flat; current estimates are for a 0.2% gain in the upcoming report;
13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will show the shifts in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for October; in the last report, the core CPI rose by 0.3%;
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