The big news from SNB eclipsed all other news items from last week as the Swiss franc sharply rose against leading currencies including the Euro and U.S. dollar. This news may have also provided additional backwind for commodities such as gold and oil, which also rallied last week. This week main event will revolve around ECB’s next policy meeting – president Draghi may offer more information about the bank’s QE program. Besides this event, other reports that will be released this week include: China’s GDP for Q4, U.S. housing starts, China’s industrial production, U.S. existing home sales, Canada’s retail sales, EU and China’s manufacturing PMI, MPC and BOC rate decisions, and German economic sentiment. So let’s breakdown the economic calendar for the week of January 19th to 23rd.
(All times GMT):
Monday, January 19th
03:00 –China Fourth Quarter GDP 2014: In the third quarter of 2014, China expanded by 7.3% in annual terms – slightly lower than the previous quarter. The current expectations are for the growth rate to reach again 7.2% for the fourth quarter. If the growth rate declines further, this may adversely impact commodities prices;
03:00 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly report, China industrial production fell to an annual rate of 7.2%; the growth rate is estimated to bounces back — current outlook is for a growth rate of 7.4%;
Tuesday, January 20th
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for December. During November, the ZEW indicator for Germany increased to 34.9 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to pick up, this may imply a recovery in Germany’s economic sentiment;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent report regarding November 2014, manufacturing sales decreased by 0.6%; current expectations are for a 0.5% fall;
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the upcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any shifts to the bank’s current asset purchase program. Considering the BOJ made waves with its recent decision, it’s likely to keep the policy unchanged in the next meeting;
Wednesday, January 21st
All Day – WEF Annual Meetings: This is an annual meeting in Davos, in which central bankers, prime ministers, finance ministers, trade ministers, and business leaders from around the world meet, talk and exchange ideas;
09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report examines the changes in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the last update, this index grew by 1.4%;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the recent month, the number of unemployed in GB dropped again by 26.9K; the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 6%;
09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the last MPC meeting, the Bank kept its cash rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; the major change in MPC’s policy is currently expected to occur in the next second half of the year;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S. housing starts monthly update for December 2014; in the last report, housing starts edged up to 1,030K houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during November, building permits slightly slipped to 1,040K houses (the recent U.S building permits update);
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will announce of any changes to its overnight rate – the rate is currently at 1%. The BOC isn’t likely to make any change to its policy;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada will also release its quarterly monetary policy update; if the Bank presents any shifts in this press conference; it could affect the Canadian dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 16th;
Thursday, January 22nd
09:30 – Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing: Based on the previous month’s report, public net borrowing reached a surplus of $13.4 billion; this measures the gap between spending and income for public corporations, the central government and local governments;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will announce of any changes to its monetary policy for January- Februarys. This time, the ECB policy meeting is highly anticipated as markets expected Mario Draghi to reveal the size of the QE program or at least provide more details about its implementation; considering the last week’s SNB’s bombshell announcement – the market’s reaction to this week’s ECB meeting could stir up the markets;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will publish its flash manufacturing PMI survey for January. Last month’s report regarding December 2014, the Manufacturing PMI fell again to 49.5 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is contracting. The current expectations are for this index to remain at 49.5. If the PMI index falls again, it will suggest China’s manufacturing sector is shirking;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 16th; in the last report the jobless claims grew to 316K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 16th;
Friday, January 23rd
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous monthly update regarding December 2014, France’s PMI edged up to 47.9 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting at slower rate. Germany’s PMI rose to 51.2 – the industry is growing faster. For this month, the estimates are for the German PMI to keep rising to 51.8. These estimates show the developments in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may impact the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s report, retail sales in Great Britain rose by 1.6%;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the last report regarding October 2014, manufacturing sales edged up by 0.2%t; current estimates are for a 0.5% gain in the next report;
13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly update will show the changes in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for November; in the last report, the core CPI slipped by 0.2%;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will pertain to the U.S. existing home sales for December 2014; in the recent report regarding November, the number of homes sold fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million houses; the current expectations are for the annul rate to bounce back to 5.08 million houses;
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