Leading commodities markets cooled down in the past week as the prices of precious metals, natural gas and oil declined. This week, many news items of the agenda including: Janet Yellen’s speech, U.S retail sales, China’s industrial production, BOE’s Governor speech, U.S industrial production, Great Britain Claimant Count, U.S CPI, EU GDP for Q1, U.S housing starts and building permits, EU, CPI China new loans, and Philly Fed index. So let’s break down the economic colander for the week of May 12th to May 16th.
(All times GMT):
Monday, May 12th
00:50 – Japan Current Account: This report will refer to the developments in the gap between exports and imports for Japan during last month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;
Tentative – China New Loans: According to the last update, the total loans grew to 1,050 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic activity;
19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report will refer to April 2014; this report shows the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the last report regarding March the deficit grew by $36.9 billion; if the deficit widens again, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision regarding implementing additional budget cuts in the future;
Tuesday, May 13th
05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly update, China industrial production rose to an annual rate of 8.8%; if the growth rate rise again, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing faster;
Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will present the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during April 2014; this report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for April. In March, the ZEW indicator for Germany dropped to 43.2 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to decline, the Euro could plausibly weaken against other currencies including the US dollar;
Tentative – Australian Annual Budget Release: this report will outline the government budget of Australia for 2014; if there will be a rise in the budget deficit it could have an adverse effect on the Aussie dollar;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly update refers to April; in the last report regarding March, retail sales rose by 1.1% (month-over-month); core retail also increased by 0.7%; this report also shows the shifts in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some input regarding the developments in demand for gasoline;
Wednesday, May 14th
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the previous month, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 30.4k; the rate of unemployment dropped at 6.9%;
10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor of Bank of England will hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to April 2014. In the latest report regarding March, this index for finished goods rose by 0.5% compared with February’s level; the core PPI also increased by 0.6%; this news might affect the USD;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on May 9th;
Thursday, May 15th
07:00 –EU and German First Quarter GDP 2014: In the fourth quarter of 2013, Germany’s economy grew by 0.4%. The progress of the German economy is likely to affect the future of ECB monetary policy; if the growth rate doesn’t pick up, this may drag down the Euro;
Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will show a revised (as of April) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2014;
09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for March analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecast of the EU;
10:00 – EU CPI: According to the latest update, the CPI slipped to an annual rate of 0.5% during March. The developments in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 9th; in the recent report the jobless claims dropped by 26k to reach 319k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent update regarding March 2014, manufacturing sales increased by 1.4%;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report pertain to the main changes in the core consumer price index for April 2014. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during March, the CPI edged up by 0.2%; the core CPI also inched up by 0.2%; this report could affect the USD and the FOMC’s monetary policy;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly changes in the U.S industrial production during April; as of March, the production rose by 0.7%; this report may affect the US dollar;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the previous survey regarding April, the growth rate rose from +9 in March to +16.6 in April. If the index further grows, it may positively affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of May 9th;
23:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech titled “Small Businesses and the Economy” at the US Chamber of Commerce and US Small Business Administration as part of National Small Business Week, in Washington DC;. Her words carry weight and could stir up the financial markets;
Friday, May 16th
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S housing starts monthly update for April 2014; this report was historically correlated withgold price – as housing starts falls, gold tends to rise the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the past report, housing starts rose by 4.4% during February to reach over 950k houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during March, building permits slipped by 2.9% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 990k. If building permits continues to fall, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is cooling down (the recent U.S building permits update);
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent report, the sentiment index rose to 82.6;
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